Background
Few people are as controversial as the world’s wealthiest individual. In recent years Elon Musk has joined the ranks of Donald Trump, Kanye West, and George Soros as the worst people to mention during family gatherings. It should not come as a surprise that much of the newborn dissatisfaction with Musk stems from his high-profile takeover of Twitter in late 2022 and how he has managed the multi-billion dollar company since; substantial layoffs, content policy changes, and the new post viewing limit have given those in the anti-Musk camp more to criticize than ever before.
In an apparent attempt to capitalize on this turbulence, Meta announced this week their launch of a competing service, “Threads.” Released yesterday, July 6th, Threads links to your instagram account and is not materially different from its Twitter rival: the app is primarily geared for short-form, text-based content and users can also post videos, photos, or links. On the homepage, a user can view, like, or repost the content of other recommended or followed accounts.
Why Threads is Unlikely to Be a “Twitter Killer”
In the day since its launch, Threads has picked up a whopping 70 million downloads – a figure “way beyond” the expectations of Mark Zuckerberg. Despite this early success, I suspect that with due time Threads will be put to rest in Meta’s graveyard of failed projects.
First off, I do not believe both Threads and Twitter can coexist in the long-run. That is, it is hard to picture a world in which cross-platform users will consistently be active on both. They are just too similar, practically identical. With no differentiation, users will likely stick with whichever app they prefer.
One’s preference for between two text-based, “share your thoughts” social media sites will largely be determined by the quality of content on the respective platforms. After all, the vast majority of users will be interacting with posts rather than creating their own. Twitter has an advantage from a curation standpoint as well as a more robust stream of content. In virtue of longevity, Twitter has a better understanding of user preferences and can recommend tweets more accurately than Threads will with new users. Furthermore, Twitter has a strong network-based competitive advantage and is far more likely to have the voices a user wants to listen to; they currently have 1.3B accounts, about a quarter of which are active on a monthly basis. The potential for Threads to strip Twitter of its influential figures is low. The majority of these users are likely to be too entrenched in the Twitter sphere. They have invested lots of time and energy into their post history and have over time attracted audiences that are not easily transferable.
One might argue that the ability of users to link their Instagram accounts to Threads makes this last point moot. That is, users of Threads can easily follow those they follow on Instagram. I think this is unlikely to give Meta an advantage. For one thing, it would only be really effective at attracting influential Twitter individuals who have far greater Instagram audiences than their Twitter followings. Furthermore, given that this is actually a mandatory aspect of the Threads sign-up process, it might actually pose a hurdle for further growth; Threads literally cannot steal users away from Twitter who do not have Instagram accounts. While the feature has indeed allowed Threads to quickly obtain critical mass, it is unclear how much value the migration of one’s Instagram friends has for the average user. Users of Twitter typically turn to the platform to stay abreast of the latest news, insights, and updates shared by celebrities, brands, and thought leaders. Even if Threads is able to incentivize posts from less influential individuals, it is doubtful that this would be appealing content for their friends. Finally, given that Threads is a standalone product, it will have a more difficult time of leaning on the success of its Instagram relative. That is, content posted on Threads will not be as accessible to active Instagram users as if Threads were integrated into the Instagram app itself.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, and as other commentators have pointed out, Meta is not assuming much risk with their Threads launch. If it miraculously dethrones Twitter? Great for Meta. If it does not? Who cares?
I truly believe that this question will be answered very shortly. Like within the next week or two. Soon the allure of a new Twitter will fade and it will become clear whether or not Threads can still grow, or even maintain activity from their 70 million users. One thing is for sure right now, however: the timing of this launch was no accident. If Meta ever had a chance to grab market share away from Twitter, it is now.
